50 days and counting

For Minnesota, the 50 day mark is one of tribulation and excitement. According to various polls released yesterday morning, Minnesota is back in swing-state territory after Obama lead in the state for the entire last year. Minnesota was an Obama state during the democratic primary, its neighbors all at least have a shot at going blue in November and the state hasn't itself voted Republican for president since 1972--for Nixon. As reported yesterday, a poll by the local Star Tribune showed McCain and Obama tied. The poll included the largest sample out of all the polls included in the RealClearPolitics average for the state. The CNN poll is the only way still estimating Obama with a double digit gap, and the RCP average has him with only a 4.7 point lead. Even pollster.com, which updated its polls on Friday, has McCain within less than 5 points of Obama.

Could this be a post-convention bump? Sure, But for the first time since the beginning of the year Republicans might have a chance to take over this battleground state. In the 2004 election Bush came within 3.5 points of Kerry, and in 2000 Bush was within 2.5 points of Gore, with Nadar taking about 5 percent of the vote. The state has been on the edge for almost a decade, and has traditionally represented a non-mainstream Republican voter as can be seen in Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty who was up for VP nomination a couple of weeks ago. McCain could be the kind of conservative Minnesotans are looking for. Besides, Bush did well in the state even with his southern accent.

Another key race going down in Minnesota is the race for the senate between incumbent Norm Coleman (R) and challenger Al Franken (D). The state has been inundated with intense political advertisements and appearances by both candidates, and is considered a toss-up by pollster.com which averages dozens of polls from various sources. Coleman is the former St. Paul mayor and a common name in Minnesotan households, but Franken has brought a unique spin on the day to day politics that some obviously find attractive. Minnesotans do have a propensity to vote for the "odd duck out," or celebrity candidate, as displayed by the Ventura governorship of the late 1990's and early 2000's. 80 percent voter turnout isn't unheard of in the state, so this extra energy could guarantee high turnout this November.

The issues facing most Minnesotans? It's the economy, stupid. Minnesotans don't appreciate high taxes, and certainly are sick of high gas prices. Fuel is a legitimate issue in the state due to the thousands of corn farmers and recent pushes for ethanol production, not to mention that high gas prices mean high food prices, meaning both the Minnesotan farmers and consumers take a hit. What's not an issue? Sarah Palin. The Star Trib found that Minnesotans were pretty well split on whether or not they liked the Alaskan governor, but the similiarity in accents has to do something for her, doesn't it???

Minnesota is back in the running, and for good reason. Democrats: consider this a sure state at your own risk. It's been said that Minnesota is an independent state and McCain is independent guy, and that could help him far well.
The state goes red this November. Not by much, in fact, by hardly anything at all, but it goes red.